The coronavirus

[Sena]

If I were to allow a young child to be in a swimming pool unsupervised and that child drowns, I would not say, "Oh well, not my fault, he 'chose' to die." Obviously, from a Sethian viewpoint, that would seem to be true. But I would still feel guilty. So if anybody would like to help me out with this Seth concept, please chime in.

Larry, your argument about the young child is "argument from analogy":

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_analogy

Seth never said that we should neglect our children.

What we are talking about here is an important Seth teaching, that each individual chooses the moment of his death. Probably 95% of the human race would disagree with that statement. If they are told that they need to take 10 vaccines to protect against Covid 19, they would happily accept the 10 vaccines.

[Sena]

First, regarding these social guidelines intended to reduce the spread of the virus, I think it is still useful to follow them so that, for starters:

-We minimize trauma to the overworked healthcare workers
-We lose loved ones later rather than sooner (and maybe get to say goodbye in person)
-We control the spread so that we can more quickly open up the economy

Larry, I agree that I should have been more precise. I agree that a limited lockdown is useful to "minimize trauma to the overworked healthcare workers". I would not expect any lockdown to reduce the total number of deaths due to Covid 19; it will only spread the deaths over a longer period.
With regard to "We lose loved ones later rather than sooner (and maybe get to say goodbye in person)", it is a silly rule which dictates that loved ones are prevented from visiting dying patients.
"We control the spread so that we can more quickly open up the economy". You will see what an 18 month lockdown will do to the economy. People will be under so much stress that there will be a massive increase in deaths from heart attack and stroke. Of course people who die in that way would have chosen to do so.
To summarize, I would agree with a very limited lockdown until the health services can be enabled to cope.

The "thug" scientists are advocating an 18-month lockdown:

"The U.K. government ramped up its response to COVID-19 Monday, asking citizens to cut all unnecessary contact with other people, after a British research team warned its earlier strategy would lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths. But those researchers also gave a troubling warning for countries around the world implementing lockdown measures: in order to be effective, they would need to last 12 to 18 months."

https://time.com/5804555/coronavirus-lockdown-uk/

This thug economist is saying something similar:

"Neel Kashkari, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said the US should prepare of an 18-month shutdown to deal with the coronavirus outbreak that is wreaking havoc across the globe.


"This could be a long, hard road that we have ahead of us until we get to either an effective therapy or a vaccine. It's hard for me to see a V-shaped recovery under that scenario," said the Indian origin Kashkari in an interview with CBS.


He said that the US should be looking at an 18-month strategy for the economy and health care system based on how other countries have responded to the pandemic."

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world/us-should-prepare-for-an-18-month-lockdown-says-neel-kashkari-5137301.html

[Sena]

More interesting information about Covid 19:

"But there is one big question that didn't even make it onto Warzel's list that has only gotten more mysterious in the weeks since: How is COVID-19 actually killing us?.

"You probably have a sense of the range of common symptoms, and a sense that the range isn't that weird: fever, dry cough, and shortness of breath have been, since the beginning of the outbreak, the familiar, oft-repeated group of tell-tale signs. But while the CDC does list fever as the top symptom of COVID-19, so confidently that for weeks patients were turned away from testing sites if they didn't have an elevated temperature, according to the Journal of the American Medical Association, as many as 70 percent of patients sick enough to be admitted to New York State's largest hospital system did not have a fever.

"The most bedeviling confusion has arisen around the relationship of the disease to breathing, lung function, and oxygenation levels in the blood — typically, for a respiratory illness, a quite predictable relationship. But for weeks now, front-line doctors have been expressing confusion that so many coronavirus patients were registering lethally low blood-oxygenation levels while still appearing, by almost any vernacular measure, pretty okay. It's one reason they've begun rethinking the initial clinical focus on ventilators, which are generally recommended when patients oxygenation falls below a certain level, but seemed, after a few weeks, of unclear benefit to COVID-19 patients, who may have done better, doctors began to suggest, on lesser or different forms of oxygen support. For a while, ventilators were seen so much as the essential tool in treating life-threatening coronavirus that shortages (and the president's unwillingness to invoke the Defense Production Act to manufacture them quickly) became a scandal. But by one measure 88 percent of New York patients put on ventilators, for whom an outcome was known, had died. In China, the figure was 86 percent."

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/we-still-dont-know-how-the-coronavirus-is-killing-us.html

[Deb]

If I were to allow a young child to be in a swimming pool unsupervised and that child drowns, I would not say, "Oh well, not my fault, he 'chose' to die." Obviously, from a Sethian viewpoint, that would seem to be true. But I would still feel guilty. So if anybody would like to help me out with this Seth concept, please chime in.

@LarryH, take on this:

Seth said over and over that murder, and even just the intent to cause injury or death to another, is wrong, period. And while Seth did say that we choose our "death" and that killer and victim would have staged the "drama" on another level, and as well, the drama was to serve a purpose for both. He also said at least a couple of times that if we can help others, we better well do it.

In my mind, there is a fine line between murder and negligence/neglect of a child or anyone else that that is not fully independent or competent. And while there will still be that underlying cooperation between both parties in a case like that, anyone that would think "oh well, not my fault" would have to be a psychopath. Seth reader or not, any mentally stable person would feel horrible and the ideas of the cooperative element or choice of death would offer no consolation. Because we are humans.

[LarryH]

Sena, the suggestion of an 18-month lockdown is an extreme viewpoint that few would buy into. Most would agree that a managed reopening based on adequate hospital supplies and testing is the prudent thing to do. Our positions may not be much different.

Larry, your argument about the young child is "argument from analogy"

In deference to your dismissal of a similar circumstance, I will make the argument less analogous: Given your admitted observation that the symptoms of this illness among carriers can vary significantly or even be absent, if you were to go to an event where you did not practice social distancing and later found that you were a carrier at that time and several others at that event now had the illness, would you feel a twinge of guilt, or would you say, "Oh, well, not my fault. They 'chose' to get the illness." That circumstance is exactly the main reason for the guidelines, because people often don't know that they are carriers. This is in reference to your original "lockdowns are useless" statement, though you have softened your position since.

[LarryH]

Because we are humans.

Thanks, Deb. That is as close to an explanation as anything in my limited viewpoint in trying to correlate Seth's concepts to our human experience. Don't cause the death or suffering of another, but if you do, it's because of some "drama" on another level, serving unknown purposes of both. It's still a maddening dilemma.

[T.M.]

Hi All,

Assuming the info coming from mainstream media sources and government is correct, then following their guidelines would be the seemingly correct thing to do.
I have severe reservations about the accuracy and overall integrity of those sources. I'm not the only one.

I also think independent researchers and regular people have put a significant dent in the official narrative about the severity and numbers of this pandemic. In the end I guess it's a matter of who you believe.
Neither side at this point can be proven either right or wrong, from an outside singular perspective.

I had to get an x-Ray at the local hospital imagery center yesterday. They have a nice big waiting room. Which they closed to half of its size and packed everyone up in the remaining space. Goodbye 6ft social distancing! Which would have been easily maintainable and is some what the norm anyways, had the waiting room been left in its original configuration.
Why aren't they following the guidelines?? If this is so real?

Wearing a mask for long periods of time is dangerous, as many working in public is now being forced to do.
Your breathing in your own carbon dioxide.
Carbon dioxide is a physiologically important gas, produced by the body as a result of cellular metabolism. It is widely used in the food industry in the carbonation of beverages, in fire extinguishers as an 'inerting' agent and in the chemical industry. Its main mode of action is as an asphyxiant, although it also exerts toxic effects at cellular level. At low concentrations, gaseous carbon dioxide appears to have little toxicological effect. At higher concentrations it leads to an increased respiratory rate, tachycardia, cardiac arrhythmias and impaired consciousness. Concentrations >10% may cause convulsions, coma and death
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16499405

I was talking with my regular physician less than 2 weeks ago about all this. I asked him a herd immunity. He said that's what's going to have to happen to finally end this. Though he also advocated for that happening as slowly as possible.

While we're playing games of guilt, if this is proven to be an over blown social engineering experiment, how many advocating for all the shutdown/social distancing/mask wearing guidelines, are going to feel twinges of guilt over the lives ruined, financially, physically, mentally ; from advocating people follow the official narrative course of action?
If another's death results from that course of action, is it somehow more excusable, acceptable?

Or in the end are we all just humans doing the best we can, with whatever info we have in hand?

[Sena]

While we're playing games of guilt, if this is proven to be an over blown social engineering experiment, how many advocating for all the shutdown/social distancing/mask wearing guidelines, are going to feel twinges of guilt over the lives ruined, financially, physically, mentally ; from advocating people follow the official narrative course of action?

T.M., thanks for your interesting post. I actually don't think this is a planned social engineering experiment, although I am sure there are a number of powerful people who are trying to get financial and other advantages from the situation. The problem is that the vast majority of people are terrified of death, and this includes people in government, doctors, and other scientists. This fear of death is making them act irrationally, and this is making a bad situation much worse. Seth and other teachers like him can help us overcome the fear of death, but it is only a minority who are willing to listen to these teachers.

[T.M.]

Hi All,

Overwhelmed health care workers??!!

This vid is from multiple locations. There's plenty out there like this.

Tik Tok Dancing Nurses? What Is This Garbage? Empty Hospitals?

[T.M.]

Hi All,

Hi Sena,

You might find this podcast/vid interesting. I know I did.

[Deb]

I had to get an x-Ray at the local hospital imagery center yesterday. They have a nice big waiting room. Which they closed to half of its size and packed everyone up in the remaining space.

I've been seeing a lot of illogical and inconsistent things being done with the restrictions. They're making things up as they go along. The CDC actually has a pandemic strategy that was put together in 2005/06. I wonder if any of that was followed? I don't want to take the time to read the documents, maybe no one else does either. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/planning-preparedness/national-strategy-planning.html

as many as 70 percent of patients sick enough to be admitted to New York State's largest hospital system did not have a fever.

Wow, so public vetting based solely on temperature has been pointless.

Interesting article, thanks for sharing it. More details, things I haven't seen in other news. Early on I'd read that the biggest problem was the immune system's overreaction to the virus—the immune system itself was causing tissue damage in the lungs.

So apparently they have been treating the lungs the same way they've treated regular pneumonia, and that needs to change.

Up until this article, I'd only heard about the lungs being the problem, but it's sounding more like a blood clotting issue considering the strokes and the micro clots found in the lungs.

"As Oxley, an interventional neurologist, began the procedure to remove the clot, he observed something he had never seen before. On the monitors, the brain typically shows up as a tangle of black squiggles — "like a can of spaghetti," he said — that provide a map of blood vessels. A clot shows up as a blank spot. As he used a needlelike device to pull out the clot, he saw new clots forming in real-time around it."

On our F1 level, we still have a lot to learn about this virus. But they are making progress.

[Deb]

From Lynda Dahl on Facebook today, I thought this ties in with the talk of medicines and vaccines for the 'rona.  Actually, there's a lot more than that, see my bolded text. Underlines are Seth's.

Lynda: Hi Seth friends, the universe works in mysterious ways, it seems. Who would have thought artificial drugs and chemicals may not only lead us into a bright future, but involve spiritual issues as well?

"(Very intently:) You cannot do anything, literally, that is NOT natural. Nevertheless, over a period of time 'artificial' chemicals taken with food into the body will form a new kind of nature, in your terms. Your bodies are beautifully equipped, and will turn almost anything to their advantage.

"According to many schools of thought, artificial drugs, so-called, or chemicals, are considered in a very negative light, cutting you off from nature. Yet such experiments represent a strong line of probability only in its 'infancy,' in which man could sustain himself without draining the earth, live without killing animals, and literally form a new kind of physical structure connected to the earth, while not depleting its substance.

"This does not mean that some biological confusion might not result in the meantime. It does mean that even in those terms, and consciously unknowing, mankind is experimenting with a probable species and working out quite spiritual issues."

The "Unknown" Reality, Vol. 1, Session 687

[LarryH]

I've been thinking about how some people want to frame this virus in ways that minimize its effect as a way to justify a premature reopening of the economy. Early claims were that it was "just a flu". With the world's statistics as of today indicating that over 7% of confirmed cases end in death, that would be 70 times the mortality rate of the flu. Claims that far more people than previously thought have the virus but are asymptomatic have come into question. Applying the claimed statistics to NYC, you would have to have a population greater than the city carrying the virus to result in the deaths there. The claims from California were based on Facebook volunteers taking the test, which makes the study non-random and likely selects from those who for some reason thought they might be a carrier, whether they had minor symptoms or knew that they had been exposed.

Another way of framing the virus to minimize its effect is to focus on just the deaths and ignore the suffering that accompanies those deaths and the suffering among those who have recovered from "the sickest (they) have ever been". Spending 7 weeks cycling through torturous symptoms while wondering if you were going to die or pass a deadly illness on to your family is not the typical flu bug. Claims that many of the counted deaths are from other causes must be balanced with the fact that many of the early deaths from the virus were not counted. Weeks before the official statistics in NYC began to show covid-19 deaths, there was a dramatic rise in the death rate among New Yorkers.

The sense of loss and worry among those related in some way to those who have the virus and the suffering among the medical practitioners is also discounted. States are opening up before federal guidelines have been met, before adequate testing is available, before tracing techniques have been put into place, even as the death rate per day hits records in some of those states. Yes, Seth says that nobody dies who has not chosen to die. But this is about more than the mortality rate.

[Sena]

I've been thinking about how some people want to frame this virus in ways that minimize its effect as a way to justify a premature reopening of the economy.

Larry, I wonder whether you would be interested in the alternative view of John P.A. Ioannidis,  Professor of Medicine, of Epidemiology and Population Health, and (by courtesy) of Biomedical Data Science, and of Statistics; co-Director, Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford:

https://profiles.stanford.edu/john-ioannidis

This is from his article written on March 17th:

"The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable. Given the limited testing to date, some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed. We don't know if we are failing to capture infections by a factor of three or 300. Three months after the outbreak emerged, most countries, including the U.S., lack the ability to test a large number of people and no countries have reliable data on the prevalence of the virus in a representative random sample of the general population.

This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless. Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future.

The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.

Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%."

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

The following is from the medical website, Medscape, published on May 4th:

"Since mid-March, Ioannidis has been arguing that the fatality rate of Covid-19 may be much lower than initially feared — and that, as a result, current public health restrictions could be overly strict. Last week, a Stanford-led study of Covid-19 infection rates in Santa Clara County, California, which lists Ioannidis as an author, seemed to offer some of the most forceful backing for that argument. The paper suggests that the fatality rate for Covid-19 may be 0.2 percent or less — lower than many other estimates, and much closer to the seasonal flu.

The problem, of course, is that many people who get Covid-19 are asymptomatic and never realize they are sick. Others may be unable to get a test, amid widespread testing shortages. As a result, one of the lingering questions of the pandemic has been how many people actually have the disease. If a larger number of people are getting infected but presenting with symptoms so mild or nonexistent that they never feel the need to be tested, then the overall infection fatality rate — that is, the percentage of infected people who die — will be considerably lower.

Such downward adjustments in the death rate of a pandemic are entirely common, as researchers and clinicians get a better grasp on how a contagion behaves. And of course, if the fatality rate for Covid-19 drifts closer to that of the common flu, some people might question whether strict lockdowns are warranted. The question, though, is whether there is enough good information on hand yet to make that case."

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/929920

The following is the UK Sunday Times on May 3rd:

"The science is becoming clear: lockdowns are no longer the right medicine".
This paper is unfortunately subscribers only. The following is from the print edition:
"A better approach (than lockdown) is to utilise testing in a precise way to guide reopening."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-science-is-becoming-clear-lockdowns-are-no-longer-the-right-medicine-k5c652wk8

[LarryH]

Sena, much of my post above was to suggest that this is about more than the mortality rate. But regarding mortality rate, I believe the Santa Clara study is the one where the subjects were volunteers from Facebook, which makes it non-random. And extrapolating those results to NYC would require more than the population of NYC having the virus in NYC. So I utterly dismiss that study. You make the point that we don't know enough, and I agree. But that does not suggest that we should base our policies on the most optimistic assumptions. I agree with the last quote in your post:

"A better approach (than lockdown) is to utilise testing in a precise way to guide reopening."

And in order to do that, we need testing for both the virus and the antibodies to be widely available as well as contact tracing to be implemented, and they are not. Until they are, we need to be very cautious about reopening.

[Sena]

An alternative view:

"Staying at Home is Highly Questionable. Here's the Proof from New York.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is "shocked" that 66% of Covid hospital admissions are from people who had been "sheltering at home." Cuomo, who is not a medic, may be shocked, but plenty of Doctors are not surprised.

Notice that even at the bottom of this graph from CNBC it says "STAY HOME. STOP THE SPREAD. SAVE LIVES." Yet the chart is clear evidence that staying home is not very helpful. According to the conventional wisdom, those who are out and about should be the ones getting infected. And they probably are, but not seriously enough to be hospitalised; and in many cases with no symptoms at all. Doctors are not surprised by this, because they know that staying home is not a healthy thing to do. The immune system weakens because it has few challenges. Lack of exercise leads to lack of fitness; and probably also to weight gain. Lack of sunlight reduces our vitamin D levels. All these things make someone a sitting target for Covid, with a far higher chance of serious problems when they do happen to meet the infection.

Our article comparing Tokyo and New York fatalities  provides a strong indication that lockdown doesn't really work. Our article on Viral Interference  provides another insight into New York fatalities. Also, a New York Times article  points to obesity as a major risk factor; and anyone who has visited the States knows what a big problem obesity is there. We need urgently to get away from the simplistic idea that staying at home keeps us all safe. It's far more complex than that. The evidence that locking down and crashing the economy is a good idea just isn't there. The evidence that it's a very bad idea is building."

https://tinyurl.com/yb5baj44

https://unlockthelockdown.com/epidemiology-for-dummies-what-you-ought-to-know/

[LarryH]

Sena, I now get more exercise every day than I did before we were asked to "stay home", partially because I have more time. I do a half-hour of yoga and strength exercises along with at least a 15-minute meditation every day. In most places, where it's easy to maintain social distancing, people are still allowed to go outside. I have always taken daily 45-minute walks, and I continue to do that. What I have noticed is that since the guidelines have been put in place, a lot more people in my neighborhood are walking, biking, and jogging than before. I absolutely agree with you about the need for sun and fresh air. Maybe it's just tougher for New Yorkers to socially distance outdoors. But there should not be any reason they can't exercise. Most of them have more time, so no excuse. But people don't get the virus by staying at home as this source implies, they get it by someone giving it to them. I wonder if in large cities, staying indoors in large apartment complexes may mean exposure to shared ventilation, not to mention the typically smaller square footage of apartments with family members crowded together.

During the Spanish Flu pandemic, they found that the patients who had access to sun and fresh air did better than those who did not.  I think you make some good points, but I disagree with the idea that we should lift the guidelines and allow everyone the complete freedom to spread the disease.

[Deb]

Seems to me that very little makes any sense right now.

I spent the past couple of days up in the mountains at a friend's cabin, in an area where walking and cycling are ok, but fishing and golfing are crimes because... there is no because, no one can explain why some things are acceptable and some are not any more. It seems to be determined by whim.

My son, his girlfriend, others have been working overtime as cooks or food delivery drivers because people cannot live without takeout restaurant food. Yet my dentist and new doctor have rescheduled my appointments several times because basic medical and dental care are considered non-essential. And then, abortion clinics and erectile disfunction facilities have remained open, being considered essential.

Criminals have been released from prisons, including violent sex offenders, to protect them from the virus. But a woman was arrested and put in jail for opening her hair salon too early... her purpose in opening was to feed and support her children, while her employees were also going hungry so their children could be fed. And the NY gov decided it was best to have covid-infected patients placed in nursing homes. So much for protecting the vulnerable.

Local governments even on the lowest level are determining what's essential or not, upon their whims. Such as the Michigan gov who decided that purchasing gardening supplies (plants, seeds, etc.) are illegal and non-essential, while buying lottery tickets is ok.

Farmers of all types are being advised to kill, destroy and throw away crops, dairy and animals while food shortages are taking place and more are predicted. To the point of famine. Makes sense to me. Not.

What is going on? I've NEVER been a conspiracy fan, but the phrase "who controls the food supply controls the people" has come up more than once and I have to wonder.

Seth fan or not, something is not right.

If there is a reliable antibody test out there, and there seems to be, why can't people who test positive for antibodies voluntarily go back to work, while those who are vulnerable wait things out? I realize this pandemic is somewhat unprecedented in our current society, but a lot of what is going on makes little sense to me. There are too many blanket solutions being enforced for a problem that should have a variety of solutions.

Lockdowns vs. herd immunity—I can't say what's correct or not. I, like everyone else, have no experience with what's going on. Being the general public, I can't rely on what I read in the news either because it's one thing one day, different the next, with sensational news articles that come and go with no follow-up. We are left to the mercy and "wisdom" of our governments on whatever level. And our own instincts.

I was fishing the past couple of days in Clear Creek County, CO, where fishing is suddenly illegal. Illegal because... no one knows why. My friend's property has a river running through it. Three of us, socially distanced by at least 20 feet, broke the law on private property in order to breathe in fresh air and soak up the sunshine that not only kills germs, but increased our immune-boosting Vitamin D. And I cooked our meals with supplies surreptitiously bought at a local grocery store, rather than the socially acceptable take-out meals.

I need to get back to work creating a reality that is not this one.

[LarryH]

And then, abortion clinics and erectile disfunction facilities have remained open, being considered essential.

Some states have attempted to shut down abortion clinics with the idea that abortions are elective procedures (maybe thrown to the courts to decide). The problem is that if you delay an abortion for very long, it becomes illegal. Those states are not letting a crisis go to waste.

There's such a thing as an erectile dysfunction facility?

Nature parks and beaches in Florida are reopening in phases. They open a beach, see how it goes, then close it down if they see too many people crowded together. Trail parks vary on opening. One problem that I see is that if you open just one of many parks or beaches, everyone wants to go there, and that makes it too crowded. If they were all open, people would naturally be more spread out.

[Deb]

The problem is that if you delay an abortion for very long, it becomes illegal.

Thanks, I didn't realize that. I'm not very familiar with the abortion laws (being past that age), although I can't help but hear about the conflicts in the news at times. I also heard that abortions have been up by 400% during the pandemic, which doesn't surprise me. I've seen a few pregnant women recently and I felt sorry for them, they must be worried about bringing a baby into this world right now. I'd even be afraid to go to a hospital to deliver.

There's such a thing as an erectile dysfunction facility?

I guess I should have written clinic rather than facility. Yes, there are a lot of them, they advertise constantly on the radio, making it clear that they are open during the pandemic, some with details of how their office procedures make a patient safe from corona exposure. There's even one that will treat online. Their name really bothers me, For Hims. Grammar, lol.

They open a beach, see how it goes, then close it down if they see too many people crowded together. Trail parks vary on opening. One problem that I see is that if you open just one of many parks or beaches, everyone wants to go there, and that makes it too crowded. If they were all open, people would naturally be more spread out.

I wonder why people can't do something as simple as keep their distance? At least where I live, there are plenty of places to be outdoors and keep your distance. So far state parks have not been closed and the local parks have picnic tables, gazebos, playground and exercise equipment cordoned off with yellow tape.

[LarryH]

Worldwide, the ratio of fatal cases (269,564) to confirmed cases (3,845,607) is 7%. https://bing.com/covid/local/unitedstates?form=msntrk

While 7% is far higher than some claim, it is bound to increase. That is because the ratio includes active cases, and many of those will die. Let's say that by some miracle, there are no new cases. So the confirmed cases are frozen. Of that, there are 2,293,113 active cases. Many of them will die, resulting in an increase in the ratio of fatal cases to confirmed cases. Another way of looking at it is to compare the fatal cases to the recovered cases. Everyone who no longer has the virus is either recovered or dead. Recovered cases (1,282,930) + fatal cases = 1,552,494. The ratio of fatal cases to (recovered + fatal) = 17.36%. That is 174 times the claimed flu mortality rate. I doubt that it will end up that high, but I would not be surprised if it ends up being over 10% mortality (based on confirmed cases, not factoring in asymptomatic cases that were not confirmed, which may be as low as 50%, but we just don't know).

[Sena]

If there is a reliable antibody test out there, and there seems to be, why can't people who test positive for antibodies voluntarily go back to work, while those who are vulnerable wait things out?

Deb, it seems that there is no proven antibody test, but I hope there will be one in the next couple of months:

"There are more than two hundred tests out there now, produced by a wide range of companies and labs, with little control over how they are marketed; only a dozen have even gone through the process of getting what's known as an Emergency Use Authorization, or E.U.A., from the Food and Drug Administration, which is less rigorous than a normal approval. The F.D.A. has told other companies that they can go ahead and peddle their tests based on self-reported measures of accuracy to clinics, doctors' offices, businesses, or state and local governments. Some tests are not just imperfect but shoddy; "terrible" is the word one researcher used in describing certain tests to CNN."

https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/are-we-failing-the-coronavirus-antibody-test

[Sena]

Worldwide, the ratio of fatal cases (269,564) to confirmed cases (3,845,607) is 7%. https://bing.com/covid/local/unitedstates?form=msntrk

Larry, you have posted the most pessimistic figure, which does not take into account the number of asymptomatic people with the virus.

"Covid-19: Why Germany's case fatality rate seems so low

Germany has the third highest number of coronavirus cases in Europe, but deaths are relatively few when compared with neighbouring countries. Ned Stafford explains why

As the covid-19 pandemic continues to grow in severity, one of the most closely watched statistics has been Germany's number of deaths from the virus, which has been remarkably low in comparison with other nations, especially neighbouring European countries.

As of 2 April official statistics showed that 872 deaths from covid-19 had been recorded in Germany from 73 522 confirmed cases, translating to a fatality rate of 1.2%.1 This compares with fatality rates of 11.9% in Italy, 9% in Spain, 8.6% in the Netherlands, 8% in the UK, and 7.1% in France.2

Christian Drosten, director of the Institute of Virology at the Charité hospital in Berlin, believes that Germany's relatively low covid-19 fatality rate can be attributed partly to the nation's early and high level of testing among a wide sample of the German population. While other countries were conducting a limited number of tests of older patients with severe cases of the virus, Germany was conducting many more tests that included milder cases in younger people.

The more tests are performed, the more likely it is that new cases will be found, and the higher total case numbers are relative to the proportion of cases that lead to death. Thus, the fatality rate decreases as this ratio widens."

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1395

[Deb]

I also have to wonder how accurate the numbers are, for a few different reasons. And of course I never know what in the news can be believed. But here are just a few things I've read:

• Just recently it's been found that some people diagnosed with the regular flu as early as November or December, before we knew about corona, actually had corona. Such as this case in France. There are a few people in the US who are suspected they had it early.  https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-france-patient-zero-december.html

• I'd read an article a week or two ago that the death rate for the regular flu has declined since corona came on board. I wonder how many patients had the regular flu and died from it, but it was reported as a corona death.

• Rumors that hospitals are attributing corona to patients who died from other causes, due to financial incentives by these CARES Act Provisions https://www.aha.org/advisory/2020-04-16-coronavirus-update-cms-releases-guidance-implementing-cares-act-provisions

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/24/fact-check-medicare-hospitals-paid-more-covid-19-patients-coronavirus/3000638001/

• Don't forget the CDC covid-death reporting guidelines,"In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID cannot be made but is suspected or likely (e.g. the circumstances are compelling with a reasonable degree of certainty) it is acceptable to report COVID-19 on a death certificate as 'probable' or 'presumed.'"

• Reporting seems to be subjective, varies by state, and it makes me wonder if we'll ever have accurate numbers.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/which-deaths-count-toward-the-covid-19-death-toll-it-depends-on-the-state/2020/04/16/bca84ae0-7991-11ea-a130-df573469f094_story.html

"In Alabama, officials have ruled that one of every 10 people who died with covid-19 did not die of covid-19. Among those excluded from the numbers reported to the federal government were a bedbound patient with aspiration pneumonia in one lung and a person with a buildup of fluid and partial collapse of one lung."

"Since at least last month, Colorado has been reporting the deaths of people who were never tested but who showed symptoms and had close contact with an infected person."

"Ohio, Connecticut and Delaware have since begun reporting deaths of people who were presumed infected but had not been not tested."

• We still don't know how many people had the virus asymptomatically. By the few antibody studies that've been done so far, it seems like a pretty good chunk of the population already had been infected but their immune systems fought it off. This:

The more tests are performed, the more likely it is that new cases will be found, and the higher total case numbers are relative to the proportion of cases that lead to death. Thus, the fatality rate decreases as this ratio widens.

[T.M.]

Hi All

This California Physician speaking on behalf of many other physicians, just rips the official narratives and numbers apart.
As well as addressing the problems we are going to see due to shutting down

[Sena]

Hi All

This California Physician speaking on behalf of many other physicians, just rips the official narratives and numbers apart.
As well as addressing the problems we are going to see due to shutting down

T.M., thanks for the video. This physician says that the only way to cope with the virus is the develpment of herd immunity. The most vulnerable need to be protected, but others should be allowed to go back to work. There will not be a safe vaccine for 3 to 4 years, so how long is the lockdown going to continue?

[T.M.]

Hi All

Hi Sena,

If people listen to the likes of Bill Gates and Fauci and friends, then the lockdown will probably never end.
But we will all get vaccinated whenever they think we should to assuage their fears of whatever.

[LarryH]

As of 2 April official statistics showed that 872 deaths from covid-19 had been recorded in Germany from 73 522 confirmed cases, translating to a fatality rate of 1.2%.

That was more than a month ago. As of today, Germany has 170,114 total cases (25,284 active, 137,385 recovered, 7,445 fatal). So fatal vs. total as a percentage is now: 4.38%. But as I pointed out earlier, that does not take into account the number of future deaths among active cases. Among those Germans who no longer have the virus (recovered + dead = 149,830), the death rate so far is 5.14%. Germany is farther along on the curve, probably because they were more proactive than the U.S. and may not have run into the problem of overwhelming hospitals as what happened in our hot spots. They also have a very robust healthcare system.

Larry, you have posted the most pessimistic figure, which does not take into account the number of asymptomatic people with the virus.

Yes, I said that:

(based on confirmed cases, not factoring in asymptomatic cases that were not confirmed, which may be as low as 50%, but we just don't know)

[LarryH]

"Sweden never shut down, now its death rate AND its economy are worse than its neighbors." The link below has charts comparing different countries in 'deaths per million' and 'economic contraction'.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/5/7/1943379/-Sweden-never-shut-down-now-their-death-rate-AND-economy-is-worse-than-their-neighbors?detail=emaildkre

"Many conservatives are in love with the idea of Sweden's approach—no lockdown. They don't take into consideration that half of Swedes live alone, or that they have a top-notch universal healthcare system. They just think "no lockdown" is a better response to the novel coronavirus pandemic.

If nothing else, Sweden's alternative response to the virus was ... a good control group. And what we're learning now is that failing to shut down hasn't just led to more deaths, but—surprise surprise!—it also didn't prevent its economy from tanking. In fact, Sweden is poised for more economic pain than its neighbors."

[Deb]

Another thing I've heard a few times recently is that the virus is harder on Afro Americans, I've heard they make up as much as 60% of the deceased here, but I've not yet heard to what they're attributing that. I suppose I need to do some searching to find out if it's something genetic or situational. I wonder how that affects the stats from other countries? I don't know the ratio of people of color to caucasians in places like Sweden.

There are just so many things to consider with these death rates, it's a not straightforward thing. Differences such as quality of health care, overcrowding, diet, overall health, age, lifestyle, underlying conditions and I'm sure more, play a factor.

[LarryH]

Another thing I've heard a few times recently is that the virus is harder on Afro Americans, I've heard they make up as much as 60% of the deceased here, but I've not yet heard to what they're attributing that.

African Americans have a higher rate of obesity, hypertension, and diabetes, all high-risk underlying conditions. Add to that the generally lower incomes and poor access to standard healthcare, generally more crowded living conditions, poorer air quality in urban environments, and good ol' racism. Minorities also dominate in many higher risk work categories such as taxi and bus drivers and the food service industry. Hispanics are also more affected by the pandemic. This is one of those areas where I think the pandemic is highlighting social needs that have been poorly addressed.

[Sena]

That was more than a month ago. As of today, Germany has 170,114 total cases (25,284 active, 137,385 recovered, 7,445 fatal). So fatal vs. total as a percentage is now: 4.38%.

Larry, I stand corrected, but even Germany may not be doing enough tests to detect those infected without symptoms or with mild symptoms.

[Sena]

"Sweden never shut down, now its death rate AND its economy are worse than its neighbors."

Larry, the evidence on Sweden is not clear. Here is an article published on 5th May:

"Sweden has reaped the benefits of keeping its economy out of lockdown after escaping the dramatic growth slumps suffered by European rivals.

The Scandinavian country has taken a far more relaxed approach to tackling the coronavirus than much of the West, keeping most schools, restaurants and businesses open and relying on a voluntary approach to social distancing.

Official figures show the country's economy shrank by just 0.3pc in the first three months of 2020, a far smaller decline than most forecasters and its central bank expected. The Riksbank had pencilled in a drop of between 0.8pc and 1.8pc.

The smaller scale of the fall contrasts with record slumps seen elsewhere across the Eurozone over the quarter as governments imposed much more stringent measures. France's economy tumbled 5.8pc, Italy's 4.7pc and Spain's by 5.2pc, while the Eurozone's output overall sank by 3.8pc - the worst decline in its history. The figures are likely to be far worse in the second quarter as lockdowns grind on...."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/05/05/light-touch-sweden-suffers-smaller-growth-hit-coronavirus/

[LarryH]

Sena, of course the past effect on the Swedish economy would be less than other economies. The article that I linked to above looks at the projected effect, which is a decline of between 6.9 and 9.7%, vs. Denmark (6.5%) and Finland (6%).

Here's a link to an article about level of contagion that partially supports your position (contagion is higher) and partially supports mine (still not a good idea to lift restrictions too early):
https://www.unknowncountry.com/headline-news/antibody-studies-suggest-coronavirus-is-twice-as-contagious-than-previously-assumed/

"Ongoing antibody studies are revealing that SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, is far more virulent than previously assumed, with preliminary data from these serological studies showing that the infection rate of the coronavirus may be up to ten times higher than the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Although this implies that only one in ten cases produces symptoms bad enough for the patient to warrant testing for the coronavirus, it does mean that the virus itself has infected ten times the number of people than what was previously assumed. But does this discovery mean that the coronavirus was less deadly than the flu all along?"

"The bottom line is that despite the lower estimated per-case fatality rate, the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus still remains at least five times more deadly than the seasonal flu for any given individual infection; combined with the sheer virulence of the disease, this could spell disaster as numerous states begin to lift social distancing restrictions, resulting in an increase in hospitalizations and deaths that are already projected to double by June 1, as per an internal White House document."

[Sena]

Sena, of course the past effect on the Swedish economy would be less than other economies. The article that I linked to above looks at the projected effect, which is a decline of between 6.9 and 9.7%, vs. Denmark (6.5%) and Finland (6%).

Larry, if the rest of the world goes into a deep recession, that would obviously have an adverse effect on the Swedish economy.

You seem to be posting extracts from websites and newspapers calculated to produce fear in readers. This is what Seth had to say about fear:

"There is a short-circuiting process in which even good intentions are distorted and turned to other purposes. That which is feared is feared so strongly and concentrated upon so intensely that it is attracted rather than repelled. The approach should not be fear of war but love of peace; not fear of poor health but concentration upon the enjoyment of good health; not fear of poverty, but concentration upon the unlimited supplies available on your earth."
—The Early Sessions Book 8 Session 337 April 26, 1967

[LarryH]

You seem to be posting extracts from websites and newspapers calculated to produce fear in readers.

Sena, I have little personal concern regarding the virus. I feel quite safe. It is not fear of the virus that I am responding to, it is concern for all of those who would be affected by reopening too quickly, not just the deaths, but the needless suffering among those who will not die from this. I could say that you are reacting to fear of the economic consequences. The armed protesters with their Nazi flags certainly are. Their efforts to open before we have adequate testing and contact tracing ironically will result in more deaths and further economic pain. I trust that the economy will recover, and the long-term consequences of the pandemic will largely be positive. My focus has largely been on these potential positives.

You have been posting extracts from websites and newspapers that show one extreme viewpoint. My posts have been based on the most current actual facts, and even when what I post does not come directly from the source, it is derived from simple math.

[Deb]

I thought you guys might appreciate this article. https://www.aier.org/article/woodstock-occurred-in-the-middle-of-a-pandemic

I remember Woodstock, although I was 13 and too young to go. I remember the name "Hong Kong flu," but don't remember anything else about it. I guess it was a nonevent for me.

It does bring up some good questions.

[T.M.]

Hi All,

Hi Deb,

I got what the Dr called the Hong Kong flu when I was in the 2nd grade. Strangest flu I've ever had. At 6am, everyday as I got up for school I would throw up and run a high fever and go back to bed. By 12 noon everyday, I would be wide awake, full of energy, showing 0 signs of sickness till 6 am the next day.
My Dad was starting to wonder if I was actually sick after a few days of that, till he saw me at 6 am.

I still wonder myself if that's what it actually was. I was in an extremely small town and not aware of anyone else catching it. Then again, at that age I didn't really pay attention to things like that.

[LarryH]

From the notes at the end of the article that Deb linked:

"Readers have pointed out that this virus in the US came in two large seasonal waves in the Winter months, while Woodstock happened in August."

The Hong Kong Flu was seasonal, and there was no reason to suspect otherwise. I'm sure that even the planners of Woodstock presumed that it would be a non-issue in August. I don't know if hospitals were overwhelmed and caught short of supplies, but I suspect that since the flu didn't last seven weeks, patients were in and out or died quickly. Maybe T.M. can remember how long it lasted for him/her. Also, the article does not say how many people actually caught the flu, so we don't know how easily it spread. We know covid-19 spreads easily, and we have a 64% higher population that is older and more obese, so it's now harder to control regardless.

[T.M.]

Hi All,

Hi Larry,

Lasted about 6 days

Eta: no real coughing and sneezing. Just extremely high temp and inner woozines.

[Deb]

Perhaps the point of the article was completely missed. For me it was less about Woodstock, and more about how the pandemic was handled in general by the country.

T.M. it's interesting your illness diagnosed as Hong Kong Flu, also interesting because there was probably no diagnostic test available to most doctors at the time.

When I was 17 I became very ill with throat so sore that I lost my voice, could not swallow my own saliva, high fever to the point of being delirious. I was diagnosed with a throat infection. It backed off for a while, and then came back soon with a vengeance. I still remember being at work at a department store and walking down the main aisle of the store being barely in touch with reality. My father picked me up and brought me home. Second diagnosis was mononucleosis, the doctor being very excited about this because I was his first case. That was in 1973.

I ended up sleeping for at least 2 weeks, not being able to eat, a temp of 105°, complete misery and delirium. I missed most of my third semester as a HS senior, which was tough because I'd skipped the 11th grade and was doubled down on core credits. Somehow I managed to make up for lost time and graduate, with only one post-graduation summer class. As I had my diploma in hand, apparently they trusted me to follow through. Having gone through that, I wouldn't want to have to go through corona because I remember what it was like.

But yes, our population is fatter and sicker now due to the SAD diet. If anyone is interested in knowing more about our diet and how health is affected, just watch the documentary The Magic Pill. It's free on Amazon Prime. It sums up everything I've learned in the past 15 years.

[T.M.]

Hi All,

Hi Deb,

I rarely got sick as a kid. That honk Kong flu, or whatever it was was, was one of those times. I think that's why it stands out in my memory.
Funny when I was around 15 or so, I had a non stop cold tinged with flu at times for 5 straight years. Dr called it strep throat and wanted to remove my tonsils. I wouldn't let them. Glad now I didn't. After that I was average, compared with everyone else  for colds. Flu's are still rare for me.
15 was around the time I started eating lots of processed foods??!! 


I'm watching The Magic Pill documentary now.  It's free on YouTube too
For health reasons, and reading lots of Louis Hay, I radically changed my diet years ago. I try to stick to meat and veges as much as possible, and am ok with skipping meat somewhat occasionally. I tried vegan, a few times. My body didn't like it. That was a struggle, and I was very low on energy.
I've recently added oatmeal. Generally yes, from scratch ingredients.
I still battle some with sugar. I am aware how dangerous it can be. At least the way I cook, it has to be added.
Dr Kaufman is suggesting normal colds and flus these days is the body's way of burning out the crud accumulated from life during these times. I agree with him.  I've had a few mild colds in the last 8 years. 2 of which I got while in the apartment complex. That thankfully I moved out of!!!
Otherwise I'm fairly healthy, and on No medication for diabetes or anything else. I haven't taken over the counter stuff either in years.

I agree I think much of the illness people experience these days, not to mention their immune systems ability to fight off infections, is highly compromised due to their diet, and what they are being told by official source's, that their diet should consist of.

[jbseth]

But yes, our population is fatter and sicker now due to the SAD diet. If anyone is interested in knowing more about our diet and how health is affected, just watch the documentary The Magic Pill. It's free on Amazon Prime. It sums up everything I've learned in the past 15 years.

Hi Deb, Hi All,

On the other hand, Seth has quite a bit to say about health and diet in NOPR. In  NOPR, Ch 16, S660, Seth says:

What you think about your body, health, and illness will determine how your food is used, and how your chemistry handles fats, for instance, or carbohydrates. Your attitudes in preparing meals are highly important.

Physically, it is true, but again generally speaking, that your body needs certain nourishments. But within that pattern there is great leeway, and the organism itself has the amazing capacity to make use of substitutes and alternates. The best diet in the world, by anyone's standards, will not keep you healthy if you have a belief in illness.

A belief in health can help you utilize a "poor" diet to an amazing degree. If you are convinced that a specific food will give you a particular disease, it will indeed do so.




Seth has quite a bit to say about this topic in this session. I've copied some of this session in the spoiler below (thanks to the Seth Search Engine):

Sorry but you must log in to view spoiler contents.

-jbseth

[Deb]

A belief in health can help you utilize a "poor" diet to an amazing degree.

Yeah, who would ever have thought that Keith Richards would still be upright.

Seth did say that what we believe about what we eat is more important than what we actually eat. Yet, he did give Jane and Rob some dietary advice and has made comments about the body's needs. And also advised acknowledged a few times that overeating causes obesity, for instance he told someone (can't find the quote) that (paraphrasing) "you are not overweight because you eat too much, you eat too much because you believe you're overweight." That's almost a contradiction.

"There are times, you see, when certain foods are of great benefit, and times when they are not."
—TPS7 Deleted Session October 28, 1982

"The body at times needs certain kinds of fats, and at other times does not"
—TPS7 Deleted Session October 28, 1982

He also made this comment about medicine, which stuck with me:

"Now in the context of usual Western learning, and with the introduction of modern drugs, you are in somewhat of a quandary. The body knows how to handle "natural" drugs coming directly from the earth — whether ground or boiled, minced or steamed. A large variety of "manufactured" drugs offer an unfamiliarity to the body's innate structure, which can lead to strong defense mechanisms. These are often aimed directly against the drug instead of the disease itself. Such a situation means that you must then use another drug to counteract the one just given.

"(Pause at 9:58.) I am not suggesting that you not visit doctors or not take drugs of that nature, as long as you believe in the structure of medical discipline that the Western world has evolved. Your bodies have been conditioned to it through the use of such medications since birth. There are many casualties, but this is still a system that you have chosen, and your ideas still form your reality. No one dies who has not made the decision to do so — and no disease is accepted blindly. Put simply, your thoughts can be regarded as invisible viruses, carriers, sparks setting off reactions not only within the body but the entire physical system as you know it."
—NoPR Chapter 7: Session 631, December 18, 1972

My feeling is that since our bodies are physical, physical components from the earth are its building blocks, Hippocrates was right, and so our bodies would also better handle "'natural' foods coming directly from the earth."

Who knows, maybe "overweight" is subjective. Maybe back before the 70% or so of Americans we now consider overweight, people were actually underweight. Who determined what BMI is healthy? Or maybe it's just natural for humans to overeat during prosperous times. And maybe this "epidemic" of fat and chronically ill people is another mass statement, one that will return us to respecting, and cooperating with, nature in a future where farmed animals are treated humanely and permitted to eat a species appropriate diet (until we stop eating animals altogether), we stop over-farming the land, over-processing our foods, and people go back to eating the way our ancestors did.

Another topic another day, about food, obesity and our health. It is all about what we believe and think according to Seth, but we have also set up and agreed to certain conventions on this planet. Hard to know what those are, other than the major ones.

I try to stick to meat and vegges as much as possible, and am ok with skipping meat somewhat occasionally.

That's what I pretty much do too. Out of curiosity I went on Atkins at least 10-15 years ago, despite a lot of ridicule. I realized I felt really great, had a lot of energy, skin, hair and nails were super healthy. It just agreed with me and it changed my eating habits. Everybody is different, and so every body is different. I run best on protein and vegs, Keith runs best on a cocktail of illegal substances. 

[T.M.]

Hi All,

Hi Deb,

There are some who think Keith and Mick are alien reptoids from another planet.    
I'm not so sure they are wrong 

[T.M.]

"In your system of probabilities there are no reptilian men or women, yet in other probabilities they do indeed exist"
—UR2 Section 4: Session 705 June 24, 1974


Bwahahaha!!   

[LarryH]

Deb, the quote that you were paraphrasing is in jbseth's spoiler above:

You begin a round of diets, all based on the idea that you are overweight because you eat too much. Instead, you eat too much because you believe that you are overweight. The physical picture always fits because your belief in being overweight conditions your body to behave in just such a manner.

[LarryH]

Related to belief and hypnosis about our diets, I have often wondered about the current gluten-free craze. It seems that among my acquaintances who are oriented toward metaphysics, they tend to be more likely to be gluten-intolerant. It's as if it's the cool thing to be. Outside of that group, I know almost nobody who claims gluten-intolerance.

[Deb]

Deb, the quote that you were paraphrasing is in jbseth's spoiler above:

Ah thanks, I skimmed through the spoiler and missed it. I don't know why it wasn't showing up on the Seth search engine.

I'm not sure what to think about the gluten issues. There are people who will say it's because wheat has been so engineered (to grow shorter and more quickly) that the proteins have been changed to something unrecognizable to our bodies. Other say it's the Roundup being used to kill the wheat before harvest (most farmers deny that's being done), and that it's really a Roundup intolerance. Other's will say its a result of leaky gut syndrome.

Maybe it's something along the lines of mass hysteria or herd mentality or it's "all the rage." Like the popularity of pet rocks.

BTW anyone else realize we hit a milestone yesterday? 500 members. Plus one.

Oh and because you all don't get notices of everything being posted here like I do (when the mail fairies are doing their job), today I put up a link to interviews of Rich Kendall and Larry Davidson. https://speakingofseth.com/index.php?topic=1991

[Deb]

Forgive me father, for I have sinned... just kidding. Last night we had friends over for dinner <gasp>. The husband is 50, a male nurse working in a nursing home in a fairly highly populated suburb of Denver. The wife is from Brazil, they've only been married a few months. The daughter/step-daughter just graduated high school and has recently chosen a very good local school to further her education in engineering, her interest being in designing medical devices. @LarryH, apparently her school test scores are off the chart. I told them about your ventilator.

So, he has mentioned a couple of times lately that there has not been one case of covid at the nursing home. The local hospitals have been pretty much closed—no cases of the virus, of course no elective surgeries, most traumas are dramatically decreased due to reduced auto traffic and activities. He, and family, have said they don't know anyone personally that has officially had the virus. Actually, neither do I.

This kind of stuff makes me wonder.

Tonight my next door neighbors are having a party of sorts. Lots of cars parked on the street, tables on the driveway, all properly distanced. People find a way. The new normal.